You Won’t Feel a Thing

A playbook on how to boil a frog…

I keep thinking about the frog in the pot. Place a frog in cool water and raise the heat slowly and it stays until it dies. I used to think that was just a metaphor. Now I understand it as a warning about how democracies die. Not with a sudden coup but by inches. One small surrender at a time.

The historians tried to tell us. They pointed to Germany in the 1930s where Hitler did not seize power in a single night. He was appointed Chancellor by President Hindenburg after the Nazi Party became the largest party in parliament a backroom deal by conservatives who thought they could control him. He offered jobs and restored pride after the humiliation of Versailles. He delivered real benefits while dismantling democracy so gradually that each step seemed defensible. First came emergency decrees after the Reichstag fire. Then restrictions on the Communist Party which many Germans saw as legitimate security measures. Then the Enabling Act presented as government efficiency. Then other parties banned one by one. Then the Night of Long Knives framed as preventing a coup. At each stage Germans who might have resisted could tell themselves this step was different. This step was justified. This step did not affect them personally. By the time the full architecture of totalitarianism was visible the capacity for organized resistance had been systematically eliminated. Germans received autobahns while losing free assembly free press and eventually their lives.

The pattern repeats. Hungary under Orbán. Venezuela under Chávez. Turkey under Erdoğan. Poland under Law and Justice. Russia under Putin. Each time a leader delivers genuine benefits while capturing institutions incrementally. Each step stays below the threshold that would provoke mass backlash. Each violation becomes the new normal before the next one arrives. The benefits provide political cover and cultivate loyalty. The incrementalism prevents the sudden shock that might unite opposition.

Did you ever think that would happen in the USA. Or did you just not want to see it.

The signs were there from the first hours of the second Trump administration.

On January 20 2025 the day of inauguration Trump issued a sweeping pardon for nearly 1,600 January 6 defendants including those convicted of seditious conspiracy and assaulting police officers. He called them patriots and hostages and claimed this would begin a process of national reconciliation. This is how authoritarians reward political violence. By pardoning those who attacked the Capitol to overturn an election Trump signaled that violence on his behalf carries no consequences. Future mobs will remember. But the same day he also promised to end inflation secure the border and restore American strength. He revoked dozens of Biden executive orders including those advancing racial equity and protecting the census and shut down the CBP One program while ordering DHS to deny federal funds to sanctuary cities as part of a new deportation push.

On January 24 he fired 17 inspectors general tasked with investigating waste fraud and abuse at federal agencies. This is how authoritarians blind oversight. Inspectors general are the internal watchdogs who investigate corruption and misconduct. Firing them all at once without cause and without the 30 days notice required by law eliminates the people whose job is to hold the executive branch accountable. But Trump framed it as draining the swamp removing bureaucrats who had protected the deep state.

On January 27 he signed an executive order banning transgender people from military service claiming transgender ideology conflicts with a soldier’s commitment to an honorable lifestyle. This is how authoritarians target vulnerable minorities. By singling out a small group for exclusion the administration tests how much discrimination the public will accept while energizing a base that views the policy as defending traditional values.

On January 28 the Office of Personnel Management sent a Fork in the Road email offering federal workers payment through September 30 if they would resign as part of implementing his new Schedule F style policy categories that strip protections from large swaths of the civil service. This is how authoritarians hollow out the bureaucracy. By incentivizing mass resignations and reclassifying jobs the administration clears out career professionals who might resist political directives and replaces expertise with loyalty.

On February 1 citing a national emergency on illegal immigration he announced 25 percent tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico using emergency authorities to bypass Congress. This is how authoritarians concentrate economic power. Emergency tariffs put trade policy directly in the hands of the executive branch and create a permanent state of exception. But for workers who had watched manufacturing jobs disappear tariffs meant someone was finally fighting for them.

On March 25 he issued an executive order creating significant barriers to voting including documentary proof of citizenship to register and aggressive purges of voter rolls justified as cleaning up fraud. This is how authoritarians restrict the electorate. By adding requirements that disproportionately burden poor elderly and minority voters the administration makes it harder for likely opposition voters to participate while insisting it is only making sure that only citizens vote.

On April 2 he announced a 10 percent tariff on all imports at a Liberation Day event staging it as a televised rally heavy on flags music and grievances. This is how authoritarians create spectacle to mask policy. The theatrical branding turned protectionist economics into nationalist celebration. For the base it felt like winning.

On April 23 he issued an executive order eliminating disparate impact liability in all federal programs effectively rewriting several civil rights laws by directive. This is how authoritarians dismantle legal protections without legislation. Disparate impact doctrine allows plaintiffs to challenge policies that have discriminatory effects even without proof of intent. Eliminating it by executive order removes a major tool for fighting discrimination while letting the administration claim it is restoring meritocracy.

On June 7 he deployed the National Guard to Los Angeles to protect federal buildings during protests over his immigration raids and Iran policy. This is how authoritarians normalize military presence in civilian spaces. Using troops against protesters even under the guise of protecting property establishes a precedent for federal force overriding local authority.

On June 10 he announced that seven military bases would revert to names honoring Confederate leaders reversing prior bipartisan decisions. This is how authoritarians signal to their base through symbolism. Renaming bases for Confederate generals tells supporters that this administration will reverse racial progress and honor those who fought to preserve slavery while calling it respect for heritage.

On June 17 while Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites he called for Iran’s unconditional surrender and asserted that the United States now had total control of Iranian airspace. On June 21 he ordered airstrikes on nuclear facilities in Iran. This is how authoritarians use foreign conflict to consolidate domestic power. Rally around the flag effects boost approval ratings and make opposition seem unpatriotic. For supporters who wanted strength against Iran it looked like decisive leadership.

On June 30 he shut down the US Agency for International Development halting new grants and ordering ongoing programs into wind down. This is how authoritarians eliminate soft power institutions. USAID projects American influence through humanitarian work and development assistance. Eliminating it reduces American presence abroad while freeing up funds that can be redirected domestically or to favored contractors.

On July 5 he lashed out by name at networks and reporters who questioned his Iran strikes and Greenland threats and again called the press enemies of the people while promising to look at tougher libel laws and hinting that his Justice Department could examine treason by certain outlets. This is how authoritarians scare the press into self censorship. They do not need to shutter newsrooms if they can make editors ask whether a story is worth the risk.

On July 12 senior advisers privately warned major law firms that representing plaintiffs in suits against the administration on immigration or civil service purges could bring regulatory scrutiny and the loss of government business. This is how authoritarians close the courthouse doors without changing a single statute. Rights remain on paper but if no firm will take the case they become unreachable.

On July 17 he created Schedule G building on Project 2025’s blueprint to prioritize loyalty over expertise by exempting thousands of policy making positions from competitive civil service rules and protections. This is how authoritarians politicize the bureaucracy. Civil service protections exist so government workers can do their jobs without fear of political retaliation. Schedule G makes it possible to fire and replace them based on devotion rather than competence.

On July 24 the Justice Department announced broad investigations into so called radical prosecutors in Democratic cities and into nonprofits organizing protests near federal facilities. This is how authoritarians turn prosecutors into political enforcers. Law enforcement resources shift from neutral application of law to targeting enemies and shielding allies.

On August 1 the White House forced out the last two senior Justice Department officials who had resisted political interference and installed loyalists whose primary qualification was personal allegiance to Trump. This is how authoritarians capture the machinery of prosecution. Once loyalists control who gets investigated and who does not the line between a state governed by law and a state governed by men begins to blur.

On August 11 he put DC police under federal control and deployed the National Guard to Washington during renewed demonstrations. This is how authoritarians take control of the capital. By federalizing police in the seat of government the administration gains direct authority over law enforcement where protests against it would be most visible.

On August 23 his education secretary opened investigations into universities that allowed protests against his immigration and policing policies and warned that their federal funding and student loan eligibility could be reviewed. This is how authoritarians intimidate universities into policing dissent for them. Institutions that rely on federal money learn to cancel events deny permits and pressure students to stay quiet.

On September 11 Defense Secretary Hegseth ordered staff to monitor social media for service members celebrating or mocking the assassination of activist Charlie Kirk suggesting they could be disciplined. This is how authoritarians enforce loyalty within institutions. Monitoring troops for political wrongthink and threatening punishment creates a climate of fear and self censorship within the military while being sold as maintaining good order and discipline.

On September 22 he designated Antifa as a domestic terrorist organization even though there is no formal membership or structure. This is how authoritarians criminalize opposition. A vague label can be applied to anyone engaged in anti fascist protest allowing the government to treat political opponents as enemies of the state.

On September 25 he issued a memorandum instructing the FBI to prioritize investigations into groups promoting violence based on anti Christianity anti Capitalism extremism on migration and hostility toward those who hold traditional views. This is how authoritarians weaponize law enforcement against ideological enemies. Directing investigations based on viewpoint rather than concrete criminal conduct turns the FBI into a tool for suppressing dissent.

On September 29 he announced that Israel had accepted a US plan for ceasefire and named himself chair of a new Peace Council that would oversee Gaza’s future. This is how authoritarians personalize foreign policy. By placing himself at the center of Middle East diplomacy he makes American policy dependent on his personal image and relationships instead of institutions.

On January 10 2026 he stated that the United States would take Greenland the hard way if it could not do it the easy way insisting that if America did not act Russia or China would dominate Greenland and that we cannot allow Russia or China as our neighbor. Greenland’s leaders responded that they do not wish to become Americans they wish to be Greenlanders and that the destiny of Greenland should be determined by the people of Greenland. Denmark’s prime minister warned that armed action would spell the end of NATO. This is how authoritarians test the limits of international order. By threatening military action against territory belonging to a NATO ally Trump signaled that American power operates without constraint.

Read that list again.

That is one year.

Each action alone might have seemed like standard political disagreement. Tariffs are normal. Pardons happen. Executive orders are part of governance. But the accumulation tells a different story. The inspectors general were fired before they could investigate. The January 6 pardons rewarded violence against the peaceful transfer of power. The transgender ban targeted a vulnerable group. Schedule F and Schedule G replaced expertise with loyalty. The National Guard deployments bypassed or overwhelmed local authority. The Greenland threat suggested military action against a NATO ally. The threats against media and universities did not come as formal censorship but as investigations licensing hints and funding reviews that made editors and provosts think twice.

And through it all the benefits kept coming. Tax cuts. Deregulation. Rising stock prices. Border enforcement. Aggressive rhetoric against elites and enemies. The feeling that someone was finally fighting for real Americans against those who had forgotten them. The benefits were real and they were purchased with pieces of the system designed to constrain him.

Through it all the Republican Party dismissed warnings about authoritarianism. When comparisons to Hitler arose GOP members rolled their eyes and said not another Hitler comparison. Trump called such comparisons terrible and ridiculous. When Trump posted on social media about a unified reich in 2024 Republican senators largely pleaded ignorance or blamed a staffer and moved on. The consistent message was that Hitler comparisons were overblown inflammatory and trivialized the Holocaust. By then reporters university administrators and law partners had watched critics of the administration dragged into one investigation after another. They had learned that silence was safer.

This dismissal itself became part of the normalization. If every warning is hysteria then no warning is heard.

I keep returning to that frog. The water temperature rises so gradually that the change feels normal. A pardon here. A firing there. A tariff. A ban. A deployment. An investigation. A threat against a territory. Each step justified by crisis or security or efficiency. Each defended by supporters who receive real benefits. Each dismissed by opponents who grow exhausted fighting a thousand small battles rather than one decisive one.

The question is whether we have waited too long to jump out.

The next question is whether a system that relies on self restraint can survive leaders who have none.

I look at the historical examples and see our reflection. Hungary’s Orbán delivered tax cuts and utility price reductions while capturing courts and media. Venezuela’s Chávez delivered literacy programs and subsidized food while packing courts and crushing independent outlets. Turkey’s Erdoğan delivered economic growth while prosecuting journalists and purging civil servants. Poland’s Law and Justice delivered child benefits while turning public media into propaganda. Russia’s Putin delivered stability while eliminating independent television and opposition figures. In each case the leader maintained genuine popularity. In each case the benefits were real. That is why people stayed. In each case the incrementalism prevented the shock that might have unified opposition. In each case the cumulative effect became visible only after the institutional capacity to reverse course had been deliberately degraded.

The United States was supposed to be different. Stronger institutions. Deeper democratic norms. More checks and balances. But institutions are only as strong as the people willing to defend them. Norms are only as durable as the politicians willing to uphold them. Checks are only as effective as the officials willing to enforce them.

When the president fires inspectors general and faces no consequence the institution weakens. When the president pardons violent insurrectionists and his party defends it the norm breaks. When the president uses the Justice Department against enemies and shields his friends the law bends. When the president threatens military action against a NATO ally and the alliance trembles the balance shifts.

The historians warned us. The Germans who lived through the 1930s warned us. The Hungarians and Venezuelans and Turks and Poles and Russians warned us. They all described the same pattern. They all said it happens slowly then all at once. They all said the hardest part is not the final crackdown but the thousand small surrenders that precede it.

Maybe the frog story is wrong. Maybe the frog does notice the heat but decides it can tolerate just a little more. Maybe the frog grows tired of the effort required to escape. Maybe the frog tells itself this is normal.

We are not frogs. We still have the capacity to notice. We still have the capacity to resist. The part that frightens me most is how easy it is to sit in the water and pretend it is warm rather than hot…